Tag Archives: 100TH

100TH Went from Great Investment to Disaster in One Act

Disclaimer: When reading articles that discussed financial aspects, always assume that the writer (e.g. me) has hidden motivations. Do not take this as the sole advice in any investing. I am neither qualified not skilled enough to give financial advice. Additionally, as you’ll see in this article, investing in any unregulated market carries massive additional risk compared to traditional market. Do your own research. Be careful. Read this disclaimer at least once per day.

On June 14, 2013, the 100TH project went from being one of the potentially best mining investments on the planet to being a complete disaster for any investor, all by a single event.

You may think that this was because someone hacked an account or leaked insider information or something like that. You’d be wrong. In this case, it was just good news and how the 100TH mine management handled that good news that completely killed off this asset as a worthwhile pursuit.

Note: I have asked tytus, the main person behind 100TH to offer comments on this article but he has not gotten back with a request to neither see the article not offer comments on it.

So what happened? We need to look a few weeks back to understand what went so wrong.

The Story So Far

100TH is a Bitcoin mine that issued shares in its profits closely resembling the behavior of perpetual mining bonds. I’ve previously written an analysis of 100TH showing that it can be a great investment but also carries some risks of which you should be aware.

Note: Before you react to the term perpetual mining bond as a negative thing, please feel free to read my article on whether PMBs are scams (and they aren’t).

100TH is traded on a single exchange only, the Picostocks exchange. As it happens, the same people run all the assets on Picostocks, lead by Polish entrepreneur tytus. Picostocks has a novel approach to trading, with complete transparency in all trades so everyone can study the strategies of successful traders and learn from them.

Everything is not great in the lad of Picostocks, however, as we initially saw in late May 2013, when tytus after some good news decided to start dumping shares onto the market. tytus officially commented on this saying that he felt that the price was too high and that some people were buying out of fear of being left behind and that liquidity had to improve to stabilize the price.

The shares that tytus dumped on the market went up blow the current ask price. In other words, tytus offered his shares cheaper than anyone else. At the time, the shares had been trading at 0.367 BTC per share, and tytus dumped his shares first at 0.2 (almost 50% lower than the market was willing to pay) and then at 0.23.

This act alone was very serious. In a free market, it is that market that must decide how to price a share. Elements include risk, potential reward, news, and other factors. In fact, the market is free to include any aspect in their valuation of a share. If it believes a share should be priced higher because it rained on Monday, then that is up to the market.

tytus effectively interfered with this freedom by limiting how much investors could sell their shares for and how much buyers could pay. In any regulated market, this is called market manipulation, and tytus effectively took away the reward for risk that early investors had expected.

After a few comments and interchanges on the Bitcointalk forum, tytus apparently saw the errors of his ways and promised that in the future, he would announce at least 48 hours in advance when he wanted to sell shares.

This, however, wasn’t what he did.

Good News/Bad News!

The one big question that has been lingering in 100TH investors’ minds are whether the Bitfury chips will perform as expected. Needless to say, when Bitfury and 100TH announced that the chips were ready and are underway to testing, this was very exciting news for those that had risked their money by investing in a very uncertain future.

The share price immediately shot up around 30% from trading around 0.3BTC to just short of 0.4BTC. However, the joy was short lived as tytus immediately put up yet another wall of 4,000 shares at 0.4BTC.

Note: A wall, although not technically the correct term, is used to describe when a huge buy or sell order is put on the market, effectively limiting the upwards or downwards movement of an asset price.

The wall was taken down fairly quickly, but the mistake was already made. Tytus had not only broken his promise to the market but had indicated that he could not be trusted to abide by his own words and that he would willfully continue to manipulate the market as he pleases.

This was a very grievous action by tytus and one that seriously undermines the 100TH mine as a viable investment for anyone. You may not see the gravity immediately, so let me elaborate a bit on why this is considered highly illegal and carries jail sentences in regulated asset markets.

Wanna Bet?

100TH is a non-existing mine that has great potential but also huge risk. That risk is taken by the investors that buy shares in the 100TH mine, and they have done so from the time of the IPO, at which point the risk was massive just like the upside to just now when the risk is much smaller but the potential reward is also rapidly diminishing.

The risk works a bit like a lottery. You buy a ticket in the lottery for a chance to win big. You don’t know how big the price will be because that depends on how many others take a risk as well. Your chance of winning depends on how the market values the price. In this lottery, the price of a ticket increases as time goes by.

I don’t want to drag the analogy too far, but imagine if a lottery came out and said that “Sure, you won, but we don’t think it’s fair to all those that didn’t bet earlier so we’re going to sell them some cheaper tickets after all”.

You would likely feel a bit cheater, right? After all, you took on the risk very early, knowing full well that your bet might turn into nothing, but hoping that it would rise a lot by other people noticing the lottery and placing their bets as well.

In the 100TH situation, this is exactly what happened. tytus put an upper limit to how much you could win, taking away much of your reward for risking your money with him and his mine.

Note: Remember that tytus isn’t just a holder of a lot of shares, he is a key insider in 100TH, and he is the operator of the only exchange where you can buy his shares.

In a regulated market, this is called market manipulation and is investigated as a criminal offence. When it is the operator of the stock exchange itself that commits this act, well, I’m certain the authorities would slap the operator so hard they wouldn’t wake up in this century, at least not as a free man.

But is it really all that bad? Let’s look at some potential consequences.

Really Bad or Just Annoying?

The first factor I want to mention is the complete reversal and outright breaking of the promises that tytus made to investors. Keep in mind that in an open and free market, investors rely on the ability to sell their investments to a market.

Tytus broke that confidence, and didn’t just do it once, or twice, he actually manipulated the market on three occasions; twice in May and once in June. This shows that he is willing to manipulate the market and cannot be trusted to abide by his own rules and promises.

The second factor is what this means to people buying now. They know that there is no way for the price to rise further. Isolated, this may not be such a problem; after all, most investors buy for the chance of dividends, not for a price increase.

However, there is still a lot of risk to be taken by investors buying now. The chips are not tested, the miners have not been built, the data center isn’t operational. A lot of things can go wrong that can greatly reduce the shares’ potential to generate income.

Most investors will want to be compensated for this risk, but tytus has effectively taken away your ability to reap such compensation. In other words, if you buy now, you have to accept that you either get nothing or you get something, the amount of which is still highly unknown. You get no reward for accepting the risk, because that reward is controlled by tytus and he has deemed that if you buy now, you have received enough.

Note: If you want to review possible scenarios for 100TH you can check out my previous article discussing 100TH compared to ASICMiner.

Third, this is a serious blow to Picostocks the platform. In every regulated market in the world, market manipulation is strictly prohibited. In the US, such activities has been forbidden for almost 100 years.

tytus also operates Picostocks and hasn’t just allowed this activity to happen, he has perpetrated it himself. From the perspective of the exchange, this is the equivalent of Robert Greifeld, the CEO of NASDAQ, saying that “I think people are paying way too much for Apple shares so we’re dumping the price”. Such an event would cause the immediate firing of that individual, to be followed by investigations from the SEC, and probably a jail sentence.

Finally, think for a moment what this means for the reputation of the shares. The owner, not having been able to start the operation, says that the shares aren’t worth more than he can get for them on the market, so he’s bailing out.

tytus knows more about 100TH than anyone else; he runs it after all. When he’s selling, as an insider, that sends a very strong message to the market: You will probably not get more from this share than you do by selling now.

Of course, this could be a rare case of altruism, where tytus really just wanted to give more people a chance to buy in, but if he truly believes that the value of the shares are higher than they are now, why would he sell?

If he wanted to give money away, he could do so through an extraordinary dividend payment out of his own pockets.

If he wanted to get more people on the market, he could announce, like he promised, well in advance that he wanted to put more shares on the market.

And if it is like he says that he didn’t want the price to go too wild to protect investors, why doesn’t he mass buy when there are bad news? In recent weeks, we’ve had numerous delays in chip production and Bitfury even lost his 100 BTC bet on Bitbet.us. These events could have dropped the price of shares considerably, but tytus didn’t put up a buy wall to protect investors then.

Instead, he broke his promise, conducted explicit and everywhere else illegal market manipulation, and implicitly telling people that they probably won’t get their money back by buying now. He’s torn away any trust the market has in him and demonstrated that at any time, he can dump more shares for whatever reason, despite anything he has said or says now.

That’s why one action lead to 100TH going from an incredible opportunity to a complete disaster in just one act.

I’m sorry to say, but I’ve sold all my shares in 100TH and I can’t recommend anyone to buy in. Not in 100TH and not in any of the other assets traded on Picostocks. Only if tytus is removed from any abilities to directly manipulate the market would I consider buying back in, and I don’t see that happening.

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Can 100TH Really be the Next ASICMiner? In a Word: No

Disclaimer: Please do not take this as financial advice. I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should not listen to anything I say. I may or may not hold shares in any company at any time, so as with everything you read, please be safe and assume that the author (in this case moi) has a direct benefit from a high or low share price. Do your own research, do not rush into investments until you understand the assets and the market, and never, ever, ever, ever, ever invest money you are not perfectly comfortable throwing out the window into a blazing pit of fire.

In the past couple of weeks, ASICMiner has seen a rocket like rise in price, trading at most over ฿3.3 which is a hefty 33 times its initial IPO value. Since then, it has subsided somewhat, and these days trade around ฿2.4-2.6 per share.

No wonder people have been looking for the next rocket to take off, and have been very curious to understand a relatively new mining operation called the 100TH project.

Can 100TH really be the next ASICMiner? In a word, no. In a few more words, no, 100TH is not the next ASICMiner because it is a completely different type of investment.

That doesn’t mean 100TH cannot be extremely profitable, though, just that they are two very different classes of assets. I’ve been doing some digging to attempt to understand the 100TH asset. Much of the research is based on the 100TH business plan as well as the discussions in the Bitcointalk forums. In addition, I have done some other research into the people behind the operation.

Let me share my findings in summary.

What is 100TH?

The 100TH project is the brainchild of two Polish entrepreneurs who together with a couple of other people decided to get into ASIC-based Bitcoin mining. Their first project was to build a 72TH mine, but that project didn’t work out. Instead, they re-launched the idea in January with a 100TH mine, this time in collaboration with Bitfury, a known entity in the community that designs and builds ASIC chips.

The 100TH mine is actually more like a bond than a share, so it is vital that you understand the differences. I’ll elaborate more on this when I compare 100TH to ASICMiner later in this article. The brief explanation, however, is that a share in 100TH is fixed at a predetermined rate of 200MH/s and will not increase over time unless the founders decide to change the asset completely.

Unlike ASICMiner, however, the 100TH project does not sell hardware. This is a plain Bitcoin mine, one with a predetermined output, making no attempts to stay competitive beyond those terms. As such, the evaluation becomes a bit simpler than ASICMiner because you need to focus on fewer areas to evaluate the stock.

ASICMiner versus 100TH

Before we begin comparing the two assets and their prospective revenues and profits, you need to understand the difference between the assets.

Note: I am explicitly not talking about the 100TH mine as a company because it isn’t one. Technically, neither is ASICMiner, but the shares act closer to those of a regular company. Bitfountain, of which ASICMiner is the publicly traded shares, is a real company.

100TH is a mine that has a given and fixed amount of hashing power per share. This amount will not increase over time, so what you are buying with a share of 100TH is exactly that hashing power for as long as the mine is operational.

ASICMiner is a company, or technically the name of the publicly traded shares of a company. ASICMiner both increases hashrate over time but in addition sells hardware when they have excess capacity that they can not otherwise utilize or when the market looks right.

Hashing Power

100TH gives 200 MH/s hashing power per share when it goes online in August.

ASICMiner currently has about 60 MH/s hashing power per share that is mining right now.

Dividends

100TH has no overhead for reinvestments, so after the management fee and costs are deducted, 100% of revenue goes out as dividends.

ASICMiner pays for costs, management, and other expenses plus they set aside a varying amount of revenue for future reinvestments before calculating a 90% dividend from the revenue.

Profitability

100TH is focused solely on yielding as much dividend as possible during its lifetime, knowing perfectly well that the lifetime will not be extended once the mining becomes unprofitable.

ASICMiner intends to run as a company over a long time and must take a longer lifespan into account when determining dividends and policy.

Halving Effect

The halving effect takes a moment to explain. In short, the block reward for mining goes down to half in late 2016, so at that point, revenue will most likely go down dramatically. As this date comes closer, the remaining profitability of a mining operation goes down. To some extent, this effect may be mitigated by increased adoption of Bitcoin which in turn may increase transaction rewards from mining.

To calculate the halving effect, take the number of months from now until November 2016 (when the halving occurs) and then divide half of the share price by that number of months. The result is the average cost of the halving effect if the block reward goes to exactly half of what it currently is. You may want to decrease this amount by some factor depending on the development of transaction fees ratio of the mining reward.

The formula is: (Current Price/2)/Months until 11/2016=Average halving effect loss per month

Example: ASICMiner trades at ฿2.5, with 43 months left until halving occurs. Assuming a halving effect of exactly 50%, we take ฿2.5, divide by two to get ฿1.25, and then divide that by the number of months left (at the time of this writing 43 months) to get ฿0.03. This is the value that ASICMiner will drop each month on average due to the halving effect.

Note: This is a simplified view of reality because only dividends are affected by the halving.

100TH will take the full blow of the halving effect and revenues will drop by approximately 50% when the block reward goes down.

ASICMiner may mitigate the halving effect by diversifying its business model, for example by maintaining hardware sales. The mining part of ASICMiner will bear the full blow of the halving effect.

Hashrate Increase

100TH will not increase it’s hash rate per share, regardless of what happens in the market, because it is a fixed rate asset. Adding hashing power is unlikely because it means the issuer is essentially giving money away for free.

ASICMiner may increase it’s hash rate per share by deploying new miners or develop new chips to yield higher efficiency. Adding hashing power is likely because the issuer also benefits from the higher revenue.

Battle of Numbers

In the end, any investment in mining always comes down to number crunching. In fact, other factors, like hardware sales in the case of ASICMiner, is so speculative that it is really close to impossible to predict with any accuracy more than a couple of months in advance.

Note: Please remember that these numbers carry with them certain assumptions. These assumptions may or may not hold true, but are required to make any analysis possible. Make sure you evaluate the assumptions and whether they fit your own research.

Which numbers are important? That greatly depends on your perception of the future, what other competitors enter the scene, how quickly ASIC hashing power becomes available to the masses, and a number of factors.

Let me set up a couple of examples here. In this scenario, I am using the average percentage of the total network power that an asset holds over three years because this simplifies the predictions to some extent.

Keep in mind that the percentage will likely be high in the beginning for fixed asset like 100TH and then decline over time as total network power increases. For ASICMiner, the ratio can be increased up to around 35% (but cannot under any circumstance exceed 50%).

Please note that in the scenarios below, hardware sales for ASICMiner is excluded. To determine dividends from hardware sales, divide the expected hardware sale by 400,000 (number of shares outstanding) and add to the dividend net yield projections below.

Current Situation:

Assumptions: None

  ASICMiner 100TH
Hashrate 24 TH/s 0 TH/s
Percentage 25% 0%
Price/share ฿2.5 ฿0.2
Dividends/month ฿0.06 ฿0
Halving Effect -฿0.03 -฿0.004
Net Yield per Month ฿0.03 -฿0.004
Yield per year 14% -2%

August 2013, 10% increase per month (low network increase):

Assumptions: 100 TH mining comes online as expected, 10% increase in network hash rate per month (total 116 TH/s) excluding 100TH, ASICMiner increase hashrate by 400%

  ASICMiner 100TH
Hashrate 96 TH/s 103 TH/s
Percentage 43% 47%
Price/share ฿2.5 ฿0.2
Dividends/month ฿0.11 ฿0.099
Halving Effect -฿0.03 -฿0.004
Net Yield per Month ฿0.07 ฿0.095
Yield per year 33% 570%

August 2014 10% increase per month (low network increase):

Assumptions: 100 TH mining mines as expected, 10% increase in network hash rate per month (total 468 TH/s) excluding 100TH, ASICMiner maintains 43%

  ASICMiner 100TH
Hashrate 200 TH/s 103 TH/s
Percentage 43% 15%
Price/share ฿2.5 ฿0.2
Dividends/month ฿0.11 ฿0.031
Halving Effect -฿0.03 -฿0.004
Net Yield per Month ฿0.07 ฿0.027
Yield per year 42% 166%

August 2014 20% increase per month (high network increase):

Assumptions: 100 TH mining mines as expected, 20% increase in network hash rate per month (total  1232 TH/s) excluding 100TH, ASICMiner maintains 43%

  ASICMiner 100TH
Hashrate 529 TH/s 103 TH/s
Percentage 43% 7.7%
Price/share ฿2.5 ฿0.2
Dividends/month ฿0.11 ฿0.016
Halving Effect -฿0.03 -฿0.004
Net Yield per Month ฿0.07 ฿0.012
Yield per year 42% 84%

A couple of things are worth noting about this last scenario.

First, regarding ASICMiner, to maintain a 43% part of the network, ASICMiner needs to grow to 529 TH/s. Using current technology where 1 TH/s costs approximately US$10,000 to put online, that means ASICMiner either needs to invent new technology or invest approximately $3,000,000 in current generation technology. At current prices of $132 per BTC, that means an average monthly cost of ฿946. This does not include hardware for resale so that cost will come on top. A price per BTC below $132 increases the BTC cost too, so revenues in a growing market will depend on a high BTC price.

Second, and this is very important, for 100TH, if network hashrate increases at this rate, the halving effect period will be much shorter than 2016 because the mine will be unprofitable long before that. This reduces the yield per year substantially and you need to look at the overall yield per lifetime instead, which will be shorter than three years.

Note: A 20% increase on average is extremely high and unlikely to be sustainable. To put it in perspective, this will mean that the network speed exceeds 11 PH/s (more than 120 times its current speed) by September 2015, just over two years from now. By October 2016, one year later, the network speed will exceed 117 PH/s or more than 1200 times the current speed. One day later, the revenue for all miners drop to half.

Incredible breakthroughs in technology must happen for that to be even remotely profitable.

To help understand that scenario, I’ve set up a table that can show the rate of return given the current trading price of roughly ฿0.2 per 100TH share and an average monthly increase in network speed of 20%.

image

(Click for full-size image)

The interesting part here is the total yield and the ROI, which shows you how much you get back for your investment. Total Yield is an absolute number and ROI is based on a price of ฿0.2 per share.

As you can see, at ฿0.2 per share and assuming the network crows in average by 20%, you’ll triple your money in a year and almost quadruple it in two years. Even then, the mine continues to be profitable for more than a year more, although the dividends total does not exceed 7% for the remaining time until October 2016, and the mine will probably shut down before that.

Note: Remember, this is based on the view that a 20% increase per month is sustainable for two years.

Even if you pay 0.5 for a share today, you’re still looking at more than 50% return on investment over two years, which incidentally beats NASDAQ composite by more than 300%. The majority of your return also comes back to you early so you’ll get you money back in just a few months and can reinvest in other interesting projects at that time.

If you’re very optimistic and possibly borderline naïve, you might want to imagine what happens if the network rate only increases by 10% on average per year. Well, here is the table for that.

image

(Click for full-size image)

I would not recommend you consider such a low number, but in this case, your ROI should reach 671% by the end of year two.

After July 2015, however, profitability for 100TH declines to almost zero, whereas ASICMiner may continue to impress with new technology for sale and ever higher hash rates. ASICMiner may yield lower ROI on its shares, but can maintain it for longer than 100TH.

The decision must be yours, as well as the assumptions on network size and how that will evolve. Both companies are great investments if everything goes according to plan. However, they are very different investments, so the decision about which company in which to invest will depend on your profile and your evaluation of the risks involved.

Speaking of which…

Risks

Like with all investments, there are risks you need to evaluate to see whether an investment makes sense. In the cryptocurrency world, there are far more risks that you need to consider. You should know about these general risks before you undertake any investments, but still there are asset specific risks that are unique to 100TH.

Let me briefly discuss a few of the risks as I see them.

Update: I’ve felt the need to add a very real risk on June 14 following a very strange move from the stock exchange at which 100TH trades. Please read on, and I’m sorry to say this is not as much a risk as a serious issue with an unregulated market now made manifest by Picostocks.

Market Manipulation

Picostocks, the stock exchange on which 100TH is traded, has a track record of market price manipulation whenever there are good news regarding 100TH. The price manipulation is done by dumping large amounts of shares on the market just above or even below current trading prices, preventing investors who takes huge risks from getting huge rewards from those risks.

Effectively, this kills off 100TH as an investment to me. As any experienced investor will know, you balance risk against potential reward, and usually expect a large risk to come with the potential for a large reward. With Picostocks manipulation and dumping of shares, this isn’t really the case anymore and investors only carry the risk without the potential reward.

Note: Picostocks is run by the same people that run 100TH. In fact, all the assets on Picostocks are run by the same people.

Tytus, the CEO of the operation, promised after the first dump in May to give advance notice to the market before dumping shares. However, on June 14, 2013, he broke that promise by putting up a massive dump of shares right after 100TH announced that the chips had shipped from the factory.

Of course, even when 100TH starts mining, there is no guarantee that this price manipulation will cease, so I’m sorry to say, this no longer is a viable asset to me.

Delivery?

100TH is still in development and has not started mining yet. In fact, they don’t even have completed chips at this point (May 26, 2013). Their scheduled start is sometime this summer; with full force mining scheduled from August 1. However, there is a risk that something goes wrong or the chips to not perform according to expectations. So far, Bitfury’s tests and simulations have been in line with what they expect, and the project has been keeping their expected timeline within reason.

In case the chips to not work, however, the backup plan is outlined in the business plan, as quoted:

“If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s. […] If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in mining will occur.”

Until the mine is actually up and running, a lot of things can cause delays or worst case stop the entire project. The main risk according to the business plan is failure of the chips.

Scam?

In the world of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency assets, the first and default state of any new idea is that “this must be a scam”. This is a cultural thing and a method for the community to protect itself because over the years, a lot of people have been trying and succeeded in scamming people out of their money.

It is important to understand that this is the default state and one every new idea must go through. Being called a scam is about as common as being called newbie. In this sense, you are guilty of being a scammer until you have proven yourself innocent, and any idea will be compared to every previous failure or scam imaginable. Presenting a new idea, especially one that means your clients must part with real valuables in return for some future benefit, means you must defend yourself against such accusations before you are given the time of day of any rational analysis.

You may agree or disagree with this attitude and approach, but unless you know about it, you can easily be scared into thinking that everything must be a scam because everyone says it is.

However, regardless of what the practice of the community is, there is always a risk that this can be an elaborate hoax to trick people into investing into air and hope. You should spend some time evaluating whether you want to trust the issuers and the project.

Operational Failure?

Even if everything turns out perfect, everybody is honest, the chips mine at the expected rates, and the mine comes up according to schedule, the mine can always run into operational problems. This can range from smaller problems with individual chips or boards to catastrophic failures that take the whole mine out. The business plan explains that there is a four year warranty on the boards, but in case of catastrophic events, mining may need to be stopped until replacement boards can be made, which in a time-critical industry like Bitcoin mining can lead to significant loss in revenue.

Profitability Decline

The most likely risk factor, however, is the profitability decline of the mine. In short, difficulty increases will mean that the 200 MH/s mining capacity per share will continually decline as difficulty increases. Because the hashrate is fixed, this decline is inevitable as long as more network power comes online, as explained in the Battle of the Numbers. Further, if new competitors arrive on the scene with either more efficient chips or more boards, this will rapidly increase the total network hashrate beyond what the mine business plan predicts.

The prediction from the business plan, however, is that the network hashrate will be 600 TH/s by the time the mine starts operating, and will increase by 200 TH/s per month throughout 2013. These numbers are very high and it seems unlikely that the network will reach 600 TH/s by August (which means an eight-fold increase in just over a month).

Further, adding 200 TH/s per month will mean that new technologies or massive new mines must come online, and knowing the pace at which ASIC development and deployment happens, this may also be on the high end of the realistic estimates at least in the short to medium term. We’re already pushing the limits of what is technically feasible with some chip producers now attempting to design and produce 28nm chips. ASICMiner, for example, uses 130nm chips, and lower is better but also massively more difficult and orders of magnitude more expensive.

Difficulty and total network hashrate is a highly speculative topic, so you want to do your own estimations on what you think is likely and whether the 600 TH/s by August plus 200 TH/s per month throughout 2013 is realistic. Perhaps you have different predictions? I encourage you to run the numbers yourself based on the model with which you are comfortable.

Despite this and the even higher numbers from this analysis, however, 100TH may remain profitable well into the summer of 2015.

Disclaimer: Please do not take this as financial advice. I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should not listen to anything I say. I may or may not hold shares in any company at any time, so as with everything you read, please be safe and assume that the author (in this case moi) has a direct benefit from a high or low share price. Do your own research, do not rush into investments until you understand the assets and the market, and never, ever, ever, ever, ever invest money you are not perfectly comfortable throwing out the window into a blazing pit of fire.